A clampdown on video face recognition systems is spreading around major cities, as politicians police and others continue to argue its merits. Meanwhile, a tightening of rules on other AI and smart technologies is on the way. Chatbots are the latest to feel the effect with a Californian law banning bots that fail to identify themselves as such. When any new technology arrives, there are people who want pragmatic laws to protect users and bystanders – think the red flags that had to be waved in front of early cars. There are also crazy laws passed to try and protect vested interests or big business. Look at all the roadblocks thrown in front of solar power and electric cars to keep big oil happy.

The topic of industry disruption -- "a process whereby a smaller company with fewer resources is able to successfully challenge established incumbent businesses" -- is rife with misconceptions. One of the biggest is that it is a mysterious, random, and unpredictable event. Another is that it happens to you in ways that are beyond your control. Those views may have been valid at one time, but they no longer apply. Industry disruption, as Accenture research has found, is reasonably predictable.

It's no secret that IBM's revenue has been sliding downward for some time now. Its second-quarter earnings report in July was more of the same -- a 21st consecutive quarter of declining revenue. The issues it faces aren't unique. Its legacy businesses -- hardware, software, and services for traditional corporate data centers -- have been shrinking as customers move to the cloud. Despite its best efforts, its own cloud isn't getting enough traction for it to make much of a dent, either in the market or its bottom line.

Is it too soon to do reviews and forecasts for the New Year? I noticed another contributor to SA has offered a forecast for Palo Alto (NYSE:PANW) and its prospective performance for the coming year. Several brokerage analysts have offered their evaluation of the year ahead for IBM (NYSE:IBM). The old year is passing at a frightful pace, and it means that all valuation metrics need to be adjusted for the year ahead. One of the interesting things about IBM is that its headline metrics are not expected to change much in 2017, with earnings expected to rise and revenues expected to show marginal shrinkage, how much credence should investors place in the consensus? How should investors look at prospects for IBM's dividend? How should investors value a company without growth, or will there be growth in the future? Of course, I do not hold all the answers. But I think as 2017 approaches, it might be worthwhile for me to express my point of view about what to expect going forward. I think that IBM is most likely to miss and/or guide down for a variety of reasons that I outline in the foregoing article.